How are we doing with our 2011 predictions from last December 6th? Unlike most marketing “gurus,” we’ll follow up each month to see how we did. Let’s start with the Lairig Marketing prediction for January:
“All those still touting the “new normal” [will be] agog at the U.S. holiday spending stats, which [will] show the online portion nearly double digits over 2009. Finally, we can all move on without guilt.”
So, where did the numbers come out?
First, let’s look at sales overall. Here are excerpts from various government and trade press releases:
- “During the fourth quarter, consumer spending grew at a 4.4 % rate, the fastest since the first three months 2006.”
- “December capped the best holiday shopping season for retailers in four years. Revenue at stores open at least a year rose 3.8 % from Oct. 31 to Jan. 1 (International Council of Shopping Centers).”
- “ShopperTrak’s National Retail Sales Estimate reported that year-over-year GAFO (general merchandise) retail sales increased 4.0 % for the 2010 holiday shopping season, compared to -0.1 % for 2009 and -5.7 % for 2008.”
- “MasterCard data suggests that the pre-Christmas sales increase was the biggest in five years, with overall U.S. retail sales between Nov. 5 and Dec. 24 up 5.5% compared to a year ago.”
Now, let’s look at the online stats.
- “comScore says online retail sales in November and December jumped 12 % from last year to a record $32.6 billion…”
- “MasterCard reported that the eCommerce channel grew 17.6% year over year in December. This was the highest year-over-year increase since December 2007.…”
Double digits is better than “nearly double digits,” so we’ll give prediction #1 a thumbs up. All of this data could have been even better, as the December 26th Northeast blizzard eliminated two days of shopping, negating an estimated $1 billion in additional sales (per ShopperTrak and others).
If that wasn’t enough, more pain was inflicted on the “new normal” illusion when major U.S. retailers reported January sales just this week. To quote Thomson Reuters: “Major U.S. retailers shrugged off the snowiest January in six years…easing concerns that consumers were all spent out after the holidays. Retailers posted a 4.2 % increase in sales at stores open at least a year, beating Wall Street expectations for a 2.7 % gain and exceeding a year-earlier rise of 3.3 %.”
And lastly, here’s a key developing story in early 2011: “coupon fatigue” – a term to portray the DECREASE in coupon redemption during the latter half of 2010. Groupon better hurry its IPO.
In the meantime, we say goodbye, and good riddance, to the new normal. It wasn’t nice knowing ya.
