Floyd Norris of the New York Times and I might be the only two people who believe a U.S. recession started at the turn of this year. Now, with the $700 billion bailout, every johnny-come-lately marketing blogger is telling us we are in a downturn, offering the incredibly unhelpful advice “now is not the time to cut marketing,” and claiming with no proof “a recession is the best time to advertise.”
Even the #1 marketing blogger on earth said he would start a new business today (with the important caveat “if I wasn’t running a business already”).
Well, no he wouldn’t. If the governor of California has to go hat in hand to the federal government to keep his state open, what bank does Seth Godin believe has money to lend him? He’s good, but he is no Arnold Schwarzenegger.
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Bloggers who have not worked in a corporation for a while, if ever, don’t understand that marketers have little control of budget in times like these. The CFO or owner or chief accountant see revenues falling and, in order to protect margins or maintain break-even, tell each department how much expense needs to be cut. Advice to “get out there and do something” is not grounded in business reality. I therefore award these bloggers the “Worst Blogging Advice of 2008” award
I’ve been posting about recession marketing strategy since January 18th. If you are not already executing against a recession strategy, you are f*cked. You will simply be bouncing from pillar to post for the rest of this calendar year.
While others believe we are now “hurtling toward a recession,” Floyd Norris and I believe we are at the inflection point, the long road back up the steep hill. Get your act ready.
Management will soon be sending guidance for next year’s budgeting process. The tone will be gloomy, and you will be asked to make do with less.
NOW is the time to think about why your marketing group will be the one that says “Wait a minute. We need a plan for when things start to turn around next spring. If we plan for disaster, that’s what we’ll get.”
Tomorrow’s post = as much detail as I can fit into 350 words on how to get ready for the 2009 economy.
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WATCH FOR THIS…I mentioned the Resolve pitch man’s ape-hairy arms August 1st. Recent TV spots have shown him either in a LONG-SLEEVE shirt or with a model’s arm for the close-up shots!!!
