Lairig Marketing

Heineken Good, Guinness Bad. No Taste Test Required.

Not sure what took so long, but after success in Europe and Asia, Heineken just opened its first branded “lounge” in a U.S. airport. God knows Newark’s Terminal C could use a distraction or two to keep passengers from realizing how small they are. The Heineken Lounge will feature free Wifi and, reportedly, “private cabanas.” Say what?

Continuing our earlier theme of experiential marketing, this is a smart marketing move by Heineken.

The Target
Yes, the brewer caught the travel industry at a bad time, but it is well documented that everyone who travels drinks. Even pilots have been known to imbibe just prior to boarding.

The Place
The only setting less uplifting than an airport terminal is a dentist’s waiting room. Heineken could have simply placed two fake palm trees around two kegs in a broom closet and improved on the sterile environment that is today’s “modern” airline terminal. Kudos to Delaware North, the company that helped Heineken pull this off.

The Customer Life Stage
OK, so this isn’t like going from marriage to retirement, but sometimes you feel as if you have passed through a life stage or two waiting and waiting and waiting for your plane. The airport experience stinks on ice, and there’s nothing better than a cold brew to mark the occasion(s). The lounge opens at 9 AM daily. QED.

The Verdict
If just 1% of the passengers who visit the lounge catch themselves the next time they’re about to order at the hometown bar and say, “wait, let me have a Heineken draft instead,” then Heineken should be doing cartwheels.

Guinness, Schmuinness
On the other hand, Guinness wins the “Tin Ear Asshat Award” for its current TV spot showing young revelers going back to work after a night at the pub and playing with the lights across the top-four floors of their office tower. Here we are in the middle of “Green” and an energy crisis, and Guinness thinks it cool to flick lights on and off.

Which goes to show ya…a funny drunk is always drunk, but not always funny.

Old People Rule !!!

On Saturday, Floyd Norris of the New York Times looked under the hood of unemployment data. And the world’s craftiest economist hit another home run.

Norris found that joblessness in this recession discriminates by age, with younger people suffering worst. Maybe no surprise there. But what he uncovered at the high (read: old) end of the spectrum was - there are more and more older people working (as opposed to UNemployed) each month.

This confirms something I referenced when I nominated Northwestern Mutual for co-winner of worst print ad of the year. Its god-awful creative of old people fly-fishing, golfing, floating in inner tubes…ALL IN ONE PICTURE. And could there be a worse time in history, other than the Great Depression, to be running around with the tagline “Let Your Worries Go” ???

As I said then, and the data show now, people are postponing retirement because they need to get to 65, never mind live beyond it.

Here’s the simple equation, in reverse:

• Retirement
• Nest egg
• Years of saving
• Income

If you don’t have income and savings, you can’t get nest egg and retirement. Simple.

I feel sorry for all the financial managers, planners and advisors who keep pounding the table on retirement. Witness Fidelity’s promotion of a “retirement” charge card, where you can earn 2% on current purchases, and apparently have enough to retire on, years from now. Which means just to get by on year-one of retirement, I must make around $3 million worth of charges to my card, every year, starting right now.

One more interesting data point: every two minutes in this country, another 15 people turn 60-years-old.

Two minutes. Roughly the amount of time in a whole year an older person spends thinking about retirement.

The Bermuda Triangle - Starbucks, McDonald’s, Dunkin Donuts

By luck or by design, the overanalyzed triumvirate of Starbucks, McDonald’s and Dunkin Donuts have carved out distinct segments of the market. But you wouldn’t know that from reading “analysis” like this from Scott Rothbort of thestreet.com:

“Just today McDonald’s reported global comp sales increases of 8.2%, and I guarantee you that part of that surge was coffee, tea and breakfast sales coming from Starbucks customers.”

That’s interesting, because McDonald’s didn’t mention it in its earnings review - it credited sales growth to a Monopoly promotion and its new Southern Style Chicken breakfast item. Something tells me McDonald’s grand experiment with coffee is not going to turn out as hoped.

I’ll tell you where those McDonald’s customers are coming from, Scott. From the likes of IHOP and Applebee’s.

Dunkin Donuts, on the other hand, doesn’t need a journalist to misrepresent its situation. It can handle that duty itself. The company, which seems to have just about completely lost its mind as far as marketing goes, is in the middle of a “taste test” campaign, in which it claims to have beaten Starbucks.

Sort of like asking a beer drinker to give you some suggestions on what wine to serve.

And finally, Starbucks. Here is Brad Stone (stage name?) of the New York Times:
“But many people are now abandoning the product, if not the lifestyle that goes with it.”

The writer apparently divined this from Starbucks’ recent earnings report where comps were down 4% (I sent him an e-mail, as well as Rothbort, for clarification, but don’t expect to hear back).

You see, Brad, “lifestyle” is all Starbucks is really selling. If you walk by one, then compare the scene to the inside of a Dunkin Donuts and a McDonald’s, you’ll see what abandonment would really mean to the Starbucks customer. Ain’t happenin’.

So, to all you “coffee analysts” out there: calm down. The situation is under control. Three good companies, three good futures.

Lay off the caffeine for a while.

Why Do Women Hate Men, Online?

The other day I read Samsung had launched a “community for Moms” called…brace yourself…“Moms Like Us.” If you’ve been tracking websites for women, moms, etc., you will know Samsung’s is now the 1 billionth of this type. comScore estimates there are 84 million visitors a month to women-oriented sites. That just about counts all women online, no?

If being late to the game wasn’t bad enough, Samsung obviously didn’t read “The She Spot,” a marketing book (I kid you not) that AdAge reviewed and summarized thusly: “the most effective means of persuading the female market is by not targeting them as women, or by not creating stereotypical offerings just because it's a female audience.” Tsk tsk, Samsung. A site about laundry - how cliche. Who knew you guys even made washers and dryers, anyway?!

Then, I read that over 17,000 women had already signed up. How could these busy moms squeeze in any more time for something like this?

I went to the site to see. The count was now up over 20,000! Could it be the sweepstakes offer of a free washer and dryer that drove so much interest? Screw it, I thought, enough of this discrimination. I do the laundry in my household, so I’m quite qualified. I signed up.

As I perused the profiles and community forums, I saw I was beaten to the punch by dozens of other men (which confirms the sweepstakes offer was key). I came across a post by “Andrew,” who labeled the whole Samsung idea sexist. He was met with over 50 responses, about half dripping with the vitriol you’d expect to see in a politics chat room, telling Andrew in so many words to go play with the boys somewhere else.

I threw in my two cents, asking if I’ll be accepted if I genuinely want laundry advice like how to keep light khaki pants clean. Six hours later - no response.

Which proves two things. 1) No one can kill an online discussion faster than me. 2) The worst time to try and reach moms online is Sunday after 5 PM.

You can thank me later.

Segmentation Is Dead - Long Live Segmentation

Every now and then you read an article about something so basic in scope that you turn to the calendar to remind yourself “Yep, it’s 2008. Not 1998. How could this sh*t be news to anyone?”

Exhibit 1 - Macy’s, Aug. 13
“dunnhumbyUSA…will analyze Macy's customer sales data, develop customer segmentation models, and work with the Macy's organization to apply the learnings…”

Macy’s, with a billion trillion customer data points over a gazillion years, has never analyzed them?!?

Digging deeper reveals interesting, and conflicting, perspectives. dunnhumbyUSA is a child to the UK firm of the same name [aside: humbydunn would sound better, but it’s women first, evidently], which in turn is part of Tesco, the now-international grocer (see: Fresh & Easy, California). dunnhumby assembled the renowned loyalty program for Tesco.

Aha! Macy’s wants to create a kick-ass loyalty program too? Hard to say. The various stories also make reference to a “localization” effort, a brick-and-mortar “My Macy’s.”

Head-scratching time. Just a few years ago, Macy’s (Federated at the time) stormed the country, taking over and rebranding nearly a dozen different companies into a unified front of 850 “Macy’s only thank you very much” stores…so that it could turn around and LOCALIZE each store?!?

If this initiative is truly about loyalty, Macy’s is a few months late. If it is about merchandising, Macy’s will die trying. Here’s hoping dunnhumby shows Macy’s how to leverage its data for customer acquisition, using the tried-and-true strategy of attracting “look-alikes.”

Exhibit 2 - Computer Geeks, Aug. 19
“The hosted system from Sitebrand…allows Computer Geeks to speak to [website] visitors differently based on their behavior…first-time visitors, past purchasers, users who had visited specific sections of the site, shoppers from specific geographic locations and visitors who have spent longer than average on the site…and not purchased.”

That’s it? Five segments? Where’s all the quantum physics and black-box algorithms?

As I’ve posted before, companies are drowning in data, especially website information, and don’t have the time or expertise to make much of it. Companies like Sitebrand who have figured a way to keep it simple, actionable, and testable will win, time and again.

And so will its clients. Computer Geeks reported a 9% rise in e-commerce sales the first two months it deployed Sitebrand’s service.

Hard to believe, but overthinking segmentation can be worse than underthinking it.
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JUST WONDERING…Who will this country miss more - Wamu or Zima?

Worst Print Ads of 2008

My June post on Vanguard’s excellent print advertising efforts gets so many search hits, I thought it might be wise to show the other side of the ledger.

I came across two candidates for “worst print ad of 2008.” Both suffer from the same fatal flaw - messaging that does not reflect the essential needs of the customer base. If the award were a real artifact, it would be an ear made out of tin.

First up, the National Payroll Association (NPA). To promote annual Payroll Week, NPA created this.

Two things in the messaging stand out. (A) A tagline that violates the “as opposed to…?” test. As in: “Payroll Professionals. Paying America. One Paycheck at a Time.” As opposed to two, or three? Checks have been handed out once per pay period since Fred Flintstone.

(B) The main message is worse. Above a clever image of a road sign with a directional arrow squiggling all over the place, we get “Life takes many twists and turns…the one thing you can count on is your paycheck.”

We have been through NINE straight months of job loss - the latest government report showing a net reduction of 159,000 jobs in September. If any department should know this, it’s the guys and gals in Payroll with a much-reduced workload.

Our second award winner is Northwestern Mutual, backslapping itself on its “Let Your Worries Go” campaign. (If you have time to kill, go to www.letyourworriesgo.com ).
Here is a version of the print related to this effort (note: image might take a few seconds to download).

In a 4th-grade collage-like photo, a giant man kneels over miniature “retirees,“ who are golfing, fishing, bird watching, and (cliché of all clichés) floating on inner tubes. The message begins with “Retirement should be something to look forward to, not fear.”

I’m not sure where these guys have been for the last, oh, 12 months. Let’s see what retirees have to say when month-end IRA statements come out. They won’t be booking many fishing trips anytime soon. According to the Bureau of Labor, the number of employed people age 65+ doubled from 1977 to 2007. 56% of older workers now work full time, up from 44 % ten years ago.

Not exactly vintage Bill “I feel your pain” Clinton material here…
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YEP THEY SAID IT…Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz is leaving "to build an extensible enterprise productivity suite, along with a high-level open-source software development toolkit, built for the Web from the ground up.” In English, please?

Chicks on Bikes. Harley Go Lightly.

Harley-Davidson is at the top of the list for U.S. brands, with one of the highest “net promoter” scores. The company is often overlooked, however, when people talk about great brands, probably for a lot of wrong reasons. The product is loud and annoying, the ticker symbol and owners clubs are named “HOG,” the typical biker is a fat dufus, etc.

Wrong, at least, on that last one. HD has been able to attract one of the most prized customer bases of any non-luxury company. Stories are legend about millionaire / billionaire CEOs taking their favorite bikes for a leisurely Sunday drive. And if you think women don’t ride Harleys, you’ve got another thing coming.

HD claims that the number of women who have bought Harleys has tripled over the past 20 years, with women now making up 12% of its new buyers. Those heavy leather jackets and motorcycle helmets make it hard to tell who is at the wheel, or handle bars, I guess.

So, to keep a good thing going, the company has been aggressively marketing to women these past several months. The company is giving away designer rings to women who buy a bike and/or graduate from its new-rider training program between June and October. Dealers are hosting women-only “garage parties,” where demonstrations show how Harley’s bikes can be suitable, and suited, for the female rider.

My only complaint about the campaign is HD not playing up the area on its site devoted to the women rider (www.harley-Davidson.com/womenriders).

Going after an underserved segment is an excellent move in a recessionary period. It works best, of course, if you already have a decent base and track record with the segment, as Harley-Davidson certainly does with women.

Beware, though. Sometimes a category leader can create trouble for itself with smart marketing. In this case, Harley-Davidson runs the risk of generating motorcycle awareness for females who then defect to low-noise, easy-to-ride, high-mileage scooters instead of Harleys.

With sales of scooters going in the opposite direction of big bikes at present, it is a probable scenario. But if you want to be a hog, or a hoggette, buying a little scooter won’t cut it.

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WHERE ARE THEY NOW?…Whatever happened to the guy who trained Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo on using e-mail (for example, the appropriate use of the “reply to all” button) ?

How Would You Save Miller Beer ?

This month’s “Save” was going to be Circuit City, but after that company’s earnings release (exhibit #1: same-store sales down 11%) we might have another Sharper Image in our midst. And to think that Blockbuster, yet another candidate on my “Save” list, wants to merge with Circuit Sh*tty…

Instead, grab a cold one. It’s Miller Time.

I’m referring to the original. True, Miller Lite outsells Miller High Life three to one, but the past 12 months shows there is some “Life” in the old boy. After years of falling sales, Miller grew 1%. And anyway, who wants a company selling Lite if it doesn’t have a non-Lite to compare to?

Brand Momentum
Compared to imports and crafts, all domestic beers taste like weasel pee. So Miller’s emotional play is on target. Unfortunately, the current campaign, as good as it is, is muddled by THREE taglines:
- Living Well By Living Smart
- Common Sense in a Bottle
- Good Honest Beer At A Tasty Price

Pick ONE and go for the emotional jugular. By its nature, the positioning slices off East and West coasts. That’s OK - this is a heartland beer. Show what Miller Time is. For ideas, see the campaign for J.C. Penney’s American Living. Or just use it, photoshopping Miller bottles into the actors' hands.

Customer Segment Targeting
The good news is you can target two segments outside the core 35-year-old mechanic. First, you can get the younger drinkers before Bud does. Second, think Hispanics - the fastest growing, soon-to-be-a-majority demographic.

Local Marketing
Sponsor every local music event and pig roast you can find. While we’re on the topic of music, run a “vote for you favorite up-and-coming band” campaign, just like everyone else.

Consumer Content
This pains me to suggest it, since most “send us your video” stuff is pure, unadulterated bullshit (Swiffer dance, anyone?). But “How do YOU define Miller Time?” is tailor made. The winner should get a twelve-pack a week, for life.

The High Life situation might be low priority as the MillerCoors combination officially kicks off next week. The guys at Miller must be praying InBev’s acquisition of A-B goes through and has the typical (lack of) success most mergers do.

In the meantime, Miller has what many brands cannot claim - two time-tested, core brand elements: High Life and Miller Time.

Not a Clydesdale, but a gift horse, nonetheless.

Joseph A. Banks The Cash

The economy is in the crapper, no one wears suits to work anymore, and the trade association for neckties folded a month ago. Yet JoS. A. Banks (JOSB if you don’t mind) had a record year in 2007, and continues to outperform in 2008. This 100-year-old men’s clothing business with over 400 retail locations must be doing something right. Let’s take a look.

The Facts
Early this month JOSB reported Q1 revenue 12% higher than Q1-07. Comp store sales were up, I repeat up, 6%. They were also up for full-year 2007. Compare this to any other apparel retailer, especially George Zimmer’s Men’s Wearhouse (“I guarantee it”), which seems to be coming apart at the proverbial seams.

The Brand
This may be JOSB’s weak link. JOSB relies mainly on local media to present itself as upscale at a “value” price. I can’t find any public data on its brand measures, but I’ll hypothesize JOSB has low unaided awareness but good aided awareness and recall. That’s enough leverage for the remaining factors discussed below.

The Website
JOSB has been able to grow both bricks-and-mortar and e-commerce at the same time (while not giving up on catalogs, despite the dramatic increases in postal rates). Its website is distinctive, clean, and very intuitive as far as navigation is concerned. No bells, whistles, widgets, or social networks required.

Marketing
To make up for a weak brand, JOSB does a lot of promotions. This freaks out Wall Street (which isn’t a big fan of JOSB management anyway), never a fan of increasing SG&A and inventory levels. But frequent promotions make sense in that situation.

Customer Management
JOSB has leveraged its channels to build a customer list of 4 million names. Plenty to drive targeted direct mail and e-mail campaigns.

JOSB also pushes customer service as a differentiator. Who doesn’t? However, JOSB’s claim seems credible, given its control of the company-owned in-store experience and the thorough website section for service.

What could go wrong?
- Demand could continue to fall dramatically
- Google could start selling suits
- JOSB management could shoot themselves in the foot

Of these unlikely scenarios, the last seems most likely. The issue I would keep my eye on is the aggressive plan for new-store openings over the next couple of years.

Everyone else is cutting back. Why JOSB isn’t is a riddle.

Going Psycho for Psychographics

Experienced marketers have undoubtedly run into one (if not a hundred) of those research studies that describe customer segments using whacked terminology. “Eco-Enthusiasts” “Advice Seekers” “Do-it-Yourselfers” “Super-Greenies” blah blah blah. Put together random combos of adjectives and nouns and you too can be a consumer research guru.

Nortel and IDC just released one of these gems, with the usual PR bluster, concluding:
“Not only is 16% of the global information workforce already "Hyperconnected," more significantly, another 36% will be joining them soon!”
Those 36%, by the way, are in a segment called “Increasingly Connected.” Sigh.

Reports like this make me crazy due to their lack of utility. They concentrate on a dimension of customer segmentation known as psychographics that cannot stand on its own, other than to give the Creative team a little more focus. If you want marketing ROI, the Nortel/IDC insights aren’t going to do it.

The best segmentation uses three elements at once - demographics, behaviors, and psychographics. The first two can stand alone if need be and still drive marketing effectiveness, because they are identifiable. I can find the 35+-year-old females in Wisconsin (demographics). I can find the customers who buy from my online store 3+ times a year (behaviors). I can’t find the “Hyperconnected.”

Thanks to marketingvox, which dug beyond Nortel’s press release, I can illustrate some limitations of psychographics.
http://www.marketingvox.com/ranks-of-hyperconnected-poised-to-boom-039072/?camp=newsletter&src=mv&type=textlink

- “Hyperconnecteds” are just about equally represented on all continents. Which means if I want to target them all, I’ll need a big (global) marketing budget.
- 47% of “Hyperconnecteds” say a network outage at work would have an extreme impact on them. Um, I thought they were HYPER connected? Shouldn’t that number be 100%? This means I will be wasting half my marketing spend.
- They are found in all industries (again, not helpful = big budget), but have above-average representation in banking and high tech (are there any of you who needed a survey for that?).
- The statement that the 36% will be “joining them soon” violates a key tenet of segmentation: segments ebb and flow, randomly.

Never mind the statistical (in)significance of surveying 2,400 adults across 17 countries.

You can get a copy of the report at http://www.nortel.com/promotions/idc_paper/index.html
but since registration is required, you might want to consider the value exchange of doing so.

Psychographics alone? As we say in these parts, that and $2 gets you on the bus.