We put a lot of time, effort and thinking into our five-part series on the economy last week. Nowhere else in the marketing blowhardsphere has there been anything that comes close to help you think about, and plan for, near-to-intermediate-term wheel-spinning.
One of the posts focused on employment, and the recent few months of “headfake” data – i.e., hiring up, unemployment claims down. We looked deeper, and prepared you for bad news.
Last Friday we received government data on hiring for March. Atrocious. From Bloomberg News:
“The 120,000 increase in payrolls reported by the Labor Department [for March]…was the smallest in five months and less than the most pessimistic estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists…”
Note, as always, professional economists remain clueless. This also puts to bed the conspiracy theory that the Obama administration is doctoring the data.
Then, this Monday, we received government data on unemployment claims for the prior week. Atrocious. From Reuters:
“The number of Americans filing for jobless aid rose last week to the highest level since January…increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 380,000…defying economists' expectations for a drop to 355,000.”
Note the economists again, on cloud nine. Or perhaps cloud ten – check this out from the same Reuters article:
“Some economists blamed the Easter holidays for the spike in claims…”
At least they didn’t blame Passover.
Coincident data show personal income flat for January and February, and credit card debt plummeting.
Now you know why the fifth part of our economic series told you to include a recessionary scenario and a flat scenario in your planning. Nothing similar yet from Ad Age, Adweak, Seth’s blog, nor Guy Kawasaki’s (who only posts once a month anyway).