Lairig Marketing

It’s Done. It’s Done. Again.

Here we are, once again, near the end of another calendar year. And the end of our blogging year.

Another 200 or so posts, with real marketing strategies assessed, points of view covered nowhere else, and predictions made that no one else would dare. In a year where 95% of the marketing industry’s attention was placed on Facebook, Twitter, Google (times five), iPads, Apple and P&G, Lairig Marketing took a run at just about everything else.

As proof, we challenge you to go back to Google’s blog search (odds are that’s how you got here in the first place) and type in “Lairig Marketing and [insert any marketer or marketing issue].” Chances are you’ll get lucky.

To toot our own horn(e), we were especially proud of the following:

• Predicting the Netflix collapse, almost to the day
• Getting the cord cutting story right, when no one else did
• Getting the paywall story right, when no one else did
• Calling the crest in private label growth
• Taking struggling brands like Campbell’s Soup, Martha Stewart, and Sears to the woodshed

Writing about this stuff every day is incredibly hard, especially when it flies in the face of conventional thinking. There’s way too much of the latter. And, we know for certain, there is little that a single tiny blog can do to successfully challenge it.

The pulse we’ll take over the near term are the comment sections on industry trade sites. Even though Facebook is now contaminating this part of the Web experience in addition to everything else it has touched, it will be interesting to see if more people comment and if their responses are less “huzzah” and more “I call bullsh*t.”

Lairig Marketing did it all year, on this blog and in the comments of MediaPost, Ad Age, et al. We are exhausted.

So we take your leave, once again using the immortal words and pictures of John Adams (actually the superb William Daniels playing John Adams in 1776): “It’s done. It’s done.”

Oh that we’ve done enough.

Your obedient,

Start Your Hmmmm File Folder For 2012 Now

Lairig Marketing is just one day from winding down for the year. That means, as of next Monday, you’re on your own as far as finding useful marketing and business information goes. So much garbage “research” and “analysis” and “advice” to sort through, most of it the same old junk, recycled for the hundredth time (“Five Surefire Ways To Be An Expert Innovator Like Steve Jobs” blah blah).

Here is a suggestion to help you churn through it all. Keep a separate folder somewhere in or on whatever it is you use to access “written” content on the Web – a laptop, an iThingie, whatever. Label the folder something that represents information that goes against the grain, opposed to the typical party line, interesting items that no one else seems to notice or know how to incorporate into his or her analysis. Use “Hmmmm” as a label if you can’t think of anything.

Save stuff into it like these tidbits we’ve collected over the past few months.

OK, Maybe All Kids Aren’t All Digital Savvy
“A study by Ypulse found that fewer than one in five students have ever used [QR codes] and nearly two thirds of students have no idea what they are.”

Don't Phone It In
According to PwC research fewer than 25% of survey repsondents “had an interest in watching premium video on smartphones. PwC said the lack of enthusiasm for mobile video is consistent with research it has done over the last 18 months.”

Like You? No, But I Love Your Discounts!
“The top reason for following or liking a brand, company or celebrity on social networking sites is to receive discounts and special offers, according to a recent survey of global online consumers conducted by Nielsen. North American consumers showed the strongest interest in using social media for deals (45%)…”

Build It Well And They Will Pay
"Condé Nast is the latest publisher to claim a boom in digital magazine sales from the launch of Apple’s Newsstand…the publisher says that new subscription sales, per week, across nine digital editions, was up 268%, with single copy sales up 142% compared to the previous eight weeks."

Influence On The Run?
“According to a Forrester study…the percentage of U.S. online adults who use geolocation apps has grown to 6% [ed.: WOW!!!]…early adopters are…twice as likely as the average U.S. adult online to share product information, but they are also more likely to share promotional coupons, discount codes, or the results of a game they’ve played.”

Save this one off as a reminder to look for future research, focused instead on the recipients of all this narcissistic pestering. Let’s see how much influence these influencers really have.

It’s Not The Tactic, It’s The Overall Value Proposition
“American blazed a path for the airline industry to switch to a la carte pricing for checked bags in 2008.” American is now (officially and financially) bankrupt. Southwest (no bag fees) is profitable.

Whether or not you ever go back into it, just the process of filling up your “Hmmm” file is going to make you a much better marketer.

Whether or not it will make you a more trusting person is hard to say.

Mayor Koch Moments #10 & #11 – How’m I Doin’?

Yikes, just three days to go before we close the books on the year. We need to finish off our look back at 2011 predictions. Here’s what Lairig Marketing predicted in December 2010 for October and November 2011:

October: “Associated Content announces it has published its one-millionth article that begins with the words ‘Five Reasons You Should...’ Demand Media immediately publishes a story ‘Five Reasons You Should Know We Reached a Million Five Reasons Stories First!’ ”

November: “The business press can’t keep up with the rash of stories about CEOs being dismissed, including one sweaty bald guy out west. Only one reporter discovers that not a single CMO was named as a CEO replacement.”

The first item was in jest, of course. Both of these garbage mills changed their form over 2011. Yahoo absorbed Associated Content into something it now calls Yahoo Voices. New name, same junk, however.

Here are three headlines from Yahoo Voices current top five Marketing articles:

• 31 Ways To Establish Yourself As An Expert
• 5 (!!!) Secrets of SEO Writing
• Choosing A Font For Your Blog

Hmmm. I wonder if Lairig Marketing’s font choice is where we went wrong.

Meanwhile, Demand Media continues to pull its junk together under sexy sounding brands such as LIVESTRONG (ALL CAPS !!!) and the ever-USELESS eHow. Even if DMD were to improve all this content, its craptastic navigation will prevent you from finding it.

As for our November prediction, we got it half right. The next Reality TV subgenre should focus on CEOs being shown the door – Yahoo, HP, BNY Mellon, Standard & Poor’s, Mercedes-Benz, Reader’s Digest, et al. But dammit to hell – how is Steve Ballmer still CEO of Microsoft?!?!?

Losses continue in MSFT’s “Online Services” division (as we’ve reported three times over the years) to the tune of TWO BILLION a year. The latest survey on Windows tablets says no one wants one. The Nokia smartphone partnership is a circus.

And Microsoft’s new ad campaign – “It’s a great time to be a family” – is light years out of touch with reality. Let’s start with the fact that less than half of U.S. households are now led by married couples. Then add the gluttonous portrayal in the TV spots of families buried under E-devices of every type. Tin ear.

How much longer will shareholders let this data point ride: stock price in 2003 = $25; stock price today = $25. Talk about money under a mattress.

When will Microsoft shareholders finally catch a little of that Monkey Boy Energy?

Why Unemployment Will Never Fall Below 8%. Ever Again.

Corporate executives have finally eaten Marketing’s cooking. At last they appreciate what it is that Marketing does – get customers to fall for dubious claims – so now these managers believe they can run their hiring process the same way. How ironic that the shadiest job specifications are for the Marketing department.

Case in point – a job spec for a Director of Marketing at Logicworks, a managed hosting company. Here are excerpts from every line item posted for this opportunity:

"The Director of Marketing will be responsible for the following activities and initiatives:

Product Launches – …finalizing and implementing a more formal product launch process to ensure standardized collateral…

Marketing Events – Plan and execute ongoing events ranging from thought-leadership dinners and tech meet-ups to social gatherings and breakfast presentations...Manage end-to-end…from concept to logistics to post-event lead analysis.

Web Site Maintenance – …ensuring press releases, new product promotions and other announcements are added to the website in a timely and consistent manner.

Collateral Development – Provide copywriting and layout guidance to graphic designers…

Google – …manage the company’s PPC campaigns…optimize the campaigns…implement landing pages that drive higher conversion rates.

Public Relations – …coordinate PR activities with company executives and Sales

Blogs and Social Media – Contribute content and manage the daily production and posting of content for company blogs and social media outlets…

Partner Marketing – Assist in the negotiation and management of joint marketing budgets…

Competitive Intelligence – Maintain close tabs on Logicworks’ key competitors…"

So far, I’d say we are looking at approximately four different people. But it gets better. Check out these excerpts from “Desired Skills & Experience”:

"The Director of Marketing should possess a minimum of five years of hands-on marketing experience in a fast-paced entrepreneurial environment, preferably in the Complex Managed Hosting…arena."

See that? The industry itself has barely been around that long, but you should have already perfected every f*cking aspect of marketing within it. But we’re still not done. The spec includes ONE MORE section redundantly called “Preferred Experience,” with Disney World stuff like this:

"- CRM management and reporting
- Email database management
- Channel marketing
- Working knowledge of the Adobe Creative Suite…and Drupal CMS is a benefit."

That would be more than a “benefit” I would say. More like a fanstasy.

If there is someone who indeed fits every aspect of this profile, and is currently employed, they are already making four times what Logicworks would pay him. (If he is currently unemployed, he wouldn’t even be considered, of course.)

Welcome to the “new normal” for careers in Marketing. This is a job spec for God. Someone who walks on water.

And who will drown trying to get just half of the items on this list accomplished.

Syracuse Beats Penn State…In Brand Control

Two large, well-respected national universities. Two assistant coaches. Two pedophiles.

Two marketing gurus. One is actually a hack, who goes on and on about the “new consumer” and how “she is in control” and that “you no longer control your brand.” The other admits the consumer ultimately defines what your brand stands for, but wisely asserts that does not mean you should abdicate control of how you would like it to be perceived.

One school is three times the size of the other, spawning satellite campuses across its home state. It is a major economic engine of said state. Yet, if you mention the name of the school to someone outside of Pennsylvania, 99 out of 100 people will make reference to its football team in some manner – the team, the coach, the heritage.

The marketing hack will say that’s just the way it is – because “the consumer is in control.” The other marketing guru will cringe, and think of other such schools like Ohio State.

The smaller school has some fine athletic programs also, mainly in sports other than football. People inside its home state are just as proud of it as the people in Pennsylvania are proud of their state university. And, when you mention the name of the school to people across the country, they aren’t as likely to reference a single sports team.

The marketing hack will say this school has a weak brand. The marketing guru will smile.

Then each school faces its worst nightmare. The Pennsylvania students actually riot, angry about the seeming injustice to its football program. The Syracuse situation flares up for about three minutes when the head coach apologizes for “misspeaking.”

Because it let the “consumer control its brand” essence, one school will be tainted for a very, very long time. Because the other school made marginally more effort to present a broader brand proposition, in three years’ time people will be hard-pressed to remember Bernie Fine’s name.

For a simple illustration of the differences in branding, compare Syracuse University’s website to that of Penn State.

The latter looks like it was designed by Bernie’s cousin, Larry.

Friday Fast Four – Slip Slidin’ Away

Will.i.am On The Lamb?
We’ve taken a couple of critical looks at Intel’s “partnership” with will.i.am, including his idiotic rant on Ad Age last month. Our doubts that Intel will see even a quarter of its investment returned were strengthened last week when Intel announced the launch of an investment fund.

Apparently not getting any momentum from will.i.am, Intel will launch an “AppUp” (seriously?) Fund, taking $100 million of its hard-earned cash and investing it in mobile-related start-ups. Intel did not say whether or not it had asked will.i.am to pony up any money. For God’s sake, the least he could do is mention Intel’s name every now and then in his lively Twitter stream.

Son of Walmart?
Meanwhile, a company you’d least expect to invest in 21st century technology (except that we did with our 2010 predictions), Walmart, is moving as aggressively as we expected with the output of its @walmartlabs skunkish works.

Walmart launched its first iPhone app in time for the holidays, complete with barcode scanners, coupons, shopping lists and a budgeting tool. It also announced a beta version of an app to map your way to the location of a chosen item in whatever Walmart store you happen to find yourself in.

So, here’s another Walmart prediction: good results for holiday 2011.

Oh Dear, Stuart. Oh, Dear Stuart.
The SAME EXACT DAY that we posted our takedown of The New York Times advertising “columnist,” Stuart Elliott, we spotted this little non sequitur in one of his patented introductions:

“Between now and New Year’s Eve, food marketers are hoping their products become the soup, frosting, snacks, candy, gravy, cereal and stuffing as dreams are made on.”

As? As??? As dreams are made on?????? Must be a line from an old Broadway show…

The Economic Conspiracy Theory
Anti-government conspiracists are up in arms at this morning’s jobs report – how could adding the same amount of jobs this month as every month prior drop the unemployment rate by FOUR tenths of a percent?!?!?

The always excellent Dan Gross of Yahoo! Finance explains it here. No one at the White House is fudging the data. It’s because the denominator keeps getting smaller, as more and more of the long-term unemployed say “f&ck it.”

“Black” Friday is going to take on a new meaning one day soon.

Is Best Buy’s Best Gone Bye?

The world must wait until the first week of the New Year to know if the “record” 2011 Black Friday results mean anything. Once all the holiday shopping has been accounted for, we will know this:

• Was Black Friday really just this week’s sales pulled up a few hours?
• Did Black Friday convince holdouts to buy like mad?
• Did Black Friday prove there is no recession?
• How the f&ck can retailers make a profit when everything is on sale?

Our best (pun?) tell will be Best Buy. There is no real national competitor of similar size and scope (take that, Circuit City!). And, since consumer electronics reportedly made up 50% of the Black Friday basket, then what better indicator of retail holiday fortune?

In case you haven’t been following Best Buy going into this shopping period, here are some things you should know, buried only one layer deep in its financial results.

Best Buy’s topline growth is the result of acquisitions. On a comp-sales basis, here are the past five years in reverse chronological order: minus 1.8%, 0.6%, minus 1.3%, 2.9%, 5.0%. If the economy wasn’t a factor for this past Black Friday, then it shouldn’t have been for the past three years either, no?

While you’re considering that, think about this also – the emergence of indirect competitors of every shape and size. Local brands like hhgregg, mass merchandisers like Walmart, online retailers like Amazon, and direct-to-consumer plays like Apple. Multiply by a million, and what do you get?

A company that continues to flatten itself with more and more acquisitions. Best Buy is even expanding into kitchens, for God’s sake (Sears, anyone?). In addition, a whole small business arm is growing with acquisitions of “managed servicers” like mindSHIFT (think of an adult Geek Squad).

Over five years, more than a 50% increase in number of stores. Yet only a 33% increase in square footage. Comp-store sales the past two quarters have been atrocious. The real kicker? Operating income as a percent of revenues – formally stuck at 4%, is now under 3%.

No shock then that Best Buy’s stock price, which had recovered nicely from the Lehman days, collapsed last holiday season, and is now around 50% below the year-ago level.

This is not a marketing communications story, nor a “branding” story. (And oh the irony that Best Buy has long been heralded as one of the best in social media marketing.) This is one of those big “P” stories – “Place” and “Product.” Best Buy is spread way too thin in both for focused growth in sales and operating profit.

Depending on what Best Buy management does after taking in the sobering holiday-season-2011 results come next January 7th or so, this will end up five years from now being the story of an ocean liner that was slowly turned in a better direction…

Or the story of a modern-day Titanic.